Any honest assessment of business opportunities in Sudan must start from where the country actually is: an active civil war since April 2023 that has caused the world's largest displacement crisis, a near-halving of GDP by some estimates, and a formal economy the World Bank itself has described as reaching a near-standstill in the most affected regions. This is not a market where general investment enthusiasm is appropriate, and this briefing will not manufacture any.
What genuinely continues, even amid the conflict, is narrower and more specific: gold production has not just persisted but grown, agricultural activity continues in relatively stable areas, and the government maintains a functioning (if constrained) investment promotion framework. This briefing sets out that narrower, honest picture rather than a general country pitch.
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Economic context: Sudan's economy contracted an estimated 13.5% in 2024 following the outbreak of civil war in April 2023, with a modest rebound to 1.2% growth in 2025 (African Development Bank)
Humanitarian scale: the conflict has caused the world's largest displacement crisis, with 12.9 million people forcibly displaced, including 8.9 million internally and 3.8 million in neighbouring countries
Gold resilience: despite the war, gold production reached roughly 70 tonnes in 2025, valued at approximately $1.8 billion and now Sudan's most important source of foreign currency
Poverty surge: poverty rose to 71% in 2025 from 36% pre-war, leaving an estimated 23 million people in poverty
Legal framework: Sudan's investment law offers tax exemptions and protection against nationalisation, though political instability remains the primary obstacle cited by the government's own investment promotion materials
Agricultural potential: over 84–200 million hectares (estimates vary by source) of arable land, much still underutilised, with Sudan historically the world's largest exporter of sesame seeds and gum arabic
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Understanding the Current Situation
Sudan's GDP contracted an estimated 13.5% in 2024 after the conflict's outbreak, following even steeper initial estimates from some analysts (the IMF's October 2024 outlook cited an 18% contraction in 2023 alone). Growth rebounded modestly to 1.2% in 2025, supported by improved agricultural output in more stable regions and a gradual services recovery — but this recovery remains fragile and geographically uneven, concentrated away from the most conflict-affected areas including Khartoum and Darfur.
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Sudan's gold sector produced roughly 70 tonnes in 2025, exceeding the government's own target by 13% and generating an estimated $1.8 billion in value — evidence that specific extractive activity has continued and even grown despite the wider conflict, though a substantial share of actual production is believed to occur outside official channels amid ongoing security fragmentation (Sudanese Mineral Resources Company / Sudan Horizon, 2025–2026).
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The Sudanese pound has depreciated sharply and repeatedly since the conflict began — reported estimates place cumulative depreciation well over 300% from pre-war levels — meaning any financial planning for Sudan-linked activity must build in substantial currency volatility as a base-case assumption, not a tail risk.
Sectors With Documented Continuing Activity
Gold mining is Sudan's clearest area of continued economic activity: the country ranks among Africa's top gold producers, and the government has actively cut corporate tax rates for gold companies (from 28% to 18%, and to 20% for traditional/artisanal mining operations) specifically to encourage continued formal-channel production and export during the conflict period. The government has also actively courted new gold-sector investment from Russia, China and Gulf-based buyers as part of its wartime foreign-currency strategy.
Agriculture remains Sudan's largest sector by historical GDP share (around 40%), and Sudan has traditionally been the world's largest exporter of sesame seeds and gum arabic — a globally significant, niche agricultural export position that continues in areas away from active fighting. Business ideas tied to agricultural export processing, where security conditions allow, retain a genuine historical demand base even amid the conflict.
Legal Framework, Incentives and Support Facilities
Sudan maintains a functioning investment promotion legal framework, though its practical reach is inherently constrained by the security situation.
Available incentive structures
- Investment law incentives: tax exemptions and legal protection against nationalisation, with formal dispute-resolution mechanisms available to registered foreign and local investors.
- Gold sector tax reductions: corporate tax cut from 28% to 18% for formal gold mining companies, and to 20% for traditional/artisanal mining operations, alongside waived fees for transferring artisanal gold to official city markets for sale or export.
- Agricultural investment incentives: government encouragement for crop production, irrigation systems and livestock farming investment, with an explicit stated ambition to position Sudan as a leading agricultural exporter to Gulf and African markets.
- Mining sector licensing: government-issued licences and tax benefits for foreign mining companies across gold, copper and iron ore, with the state retaining custodial authority over all mineral resources.
- Red Sea trade gateway positioning: Sudan's coastal location is explicitly marketed as a gateway to African markets, though realising this potential requires port, airport and highway infrastructure investment the government acknowledges remains underdeveloped.
What every investor must weigh
Sudan's own investment promotion materials are unusually direct about the primary obstacle: political instability. Poor infrastructure across transport, electricity and water, alongside administrative and bureaucratic delays, compound the core security risk. Any activity should be treated as geographically specific — conditions vary enormously between areas under different control, and a project's viability depends heavily on its exact location relative to active conflict zones.
Growth Trajectory and Outlook
The African Development Bank projects growth strengthening to 2.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, driven by reconstruction-related spending in social services and infrastructure alongside a gradual, uneven resumption of economic activity. Inflation, while expected to decelerate, remains extremely elevated — projected at 78.3% in 2026 and 51.3% in 2027, down from even higher levels during the conflict's early phase.
Independent modelling from IFPRI presents a starker range: under continued-conflict scenarios, Sudan's economy could contract by up to 42% from pre-war 2022 levels by the end of 2025, with the agrifood system's GDP contracting by a third and employment in that sector potentially halving. The gap between the AfDB's institutional forecast and IFPRI's conflict-scenario modelling itself illustrates the genuine uncertainty investors face.
Year-Wise Data: Sudan's Economic Trajectory
Figures below reflect actual AfDB reporting and cite alternative conflict-scenario estimates where they materially diverge.
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Year
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Real GDP Growth
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Source / Basis
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2023
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-18% to -20.3% (range across IMF/other estimates)
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Actual (IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2024)
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2024
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-13.5% (AfDB) to -15.1% (World Bank)
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Actual (AfDB / World Bank)
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2025
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+1.2% (AfDB) vs. up to -42% cumulative from 2022 under IFPRI's continued-conflict scenario
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Actual/scenario range (AfDB / IFPRI)
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2026F
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2.1%
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Forecast (AfDB)
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2027F
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3.2%
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Forecast (AfDB)
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A Realistic, Scenario-Based Forecast
This briefing will not provide a single confident market-size projection for Sudan, because the underlying conflict makes any such figure more misleading than useful. What can be said honestly is that two credible but very different scenarios exist side by side in current analysis: an institutional forecast (AfDB) showing gradual recovery beginning in 2025–2026, and independent conflict-scenario modelling (IFPRI) showing continued severe contraction if the war persists through 2025 and beyond.
Any investment thesis for Sudan should be explicitly built around which scenario is more likely for the specific region and sector in question, rather than a single national-level assumption — gold mining and agriculture in more stable areas may continue functioning even as the broader economy remains in the more severe scenario range.
Trade and Resource Considerations
Sudan's 2023 exports, valued at roughly $5.09 billion, were led by crude oil ($1.13 billion), gold ($1.03 billion), animal products ($902 million), oilseeds (including $613 million in sesame) and gum arabic ($141 million) — a resource-and-agriculture-dominated export base that has continued functioning, in modified form, through the conflict. Sudan remains the world's largest exporter of both sesame seeds and gum arabic, the latter a globally important stabiliser and emulsifier ingredient for food, pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries with few substitute sourcing options.
Control over gold mines and trade routes has itself become a contested strategic asset in the conflict, with both major warring parties reportedly deriving significant funding from gold revenue — a dynamic that should factor directly into any due diligence around gold-sector engagement, given the complex and evolving compliance and reputational considerations this creates.
Organisations and Sectors Active in Sudan
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Organisation / Sector
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Role / Activity
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Sudanese Mineral Resources Company (SMRC)
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State-affiliated gold sector oversight and export tracking
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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining sector
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Employs hundreds of thousands, operates largely outside formal regulation
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World Bank Group
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Economic monitoring and humanitarian/reconstruction-linked engagement
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African Development Bank (AfDB)
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Economic outlook reporting and regional development engagement
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Traditional agricultural export sector (sesame, gum arabic)
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Continues functioning in relatively stable growing regions
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International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
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Independent conflict-impact economic modelling
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UN agencies (humanitarian response)
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Large-scale humanitarian assistance to displaced and conflict-affected populations
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Major Cities and Economic Areas in Sudan
Sudan's economic geography has been fundamentally disrupted by the conflict; conditions vary enormously by city and region, and this list should be read alongside current security reporting rather than as a stable guide.
- Khartoum: the capital and historically the country's largest economic centre, severely affected by the conflict, with the formal economy described by the World Bank as near-standstill in the most impacted areas.
- Port Sudan: on the Red Sea coast, Sudan's principal port and, amid the conflict, a relocated seat of interim government and administrative activity.
- Atbara: a northern industrial and rail town, historically linked to Sudan's rail network and light manufacturing.
- El Obeid: a central Sudan commercial and agricultural trade hub in Kordofan.
- Gedaref: a major agricultural centre in eastern Sudan, important for sesame and sorghum production.
- Kassala: an eastern agricultural and trade town near the Eritrean border.
Where the Realistic (and Narrow) Openings Sit
Gold mining and gold-linked trade carry the clearest evidence of continued activity, backed by specific government tax incentives designed to keep production flowing through official channels — though this comes with genuine and serious compliance and reputational considerations given the resource's role in funding the ongoing conflict. Agricultural export activity, particularly sesame and gum arabic in regions away from active fighting, represents Sudan's other area of documented continuing economic function.
Beyond these two categories, any other business ideas in Sudan should be treated as speculative pending meaningful conflict resolution, and organisations considering entry should prioritise regions with demonstrated relative stability and existing operational precedent over the country as a whole.
Cost and Investment Data
Costs below are indicative in US dollars, given the Sudanese pound's severe and ongoing volatility; all figures should be treated as approximate and re-verified immediately prior to any actual transaction.
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Investment Category
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Approx. Cost Range (USD)
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Notes
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Small-scale agricultural export operation (sesame, gum arabic)
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US$20,000 – US$150,000
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Subject to significant regional security and logistics due diligence
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Gold sector engagement
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Highly variable, project-dependent
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Requires specialist compliance review given conflict-financing considerations
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Formal gold mining company tax rate
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18% (reduced from 28%)
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Government incentive to encourage official-channel production
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Traditional/artisanal gold mining tax rate
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20%
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Reduced rate, plus waived fees for official-channel gold transfer
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Agricultural land investment
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Highly variable by region and security status
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Over 84 million hectares of arable land, much underutilised
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it safe to invest in Sudan right now?
No general investment can be considered safe given the active civil war since April 2023 and the world's largest current displacement crisis; any engagement should be limited to specific sectors and regions with demonstrated relative stability, undertaken only with specialist security and compliance support.
What is the minimum investment for business registration in Sudan?
There is no meaningful universal minimum to cite given current conditions; Sudan's investment law provides a legal framework, but practical registration and operation depend heavily on regional security conditions that vary enormously across the country.
Which sectors in Sudan show continued economic activity despite the conflict?
Gold mining (roughly 70 tonnes produced in 2025) and agricultural export activity (particularly sesame seeds and gum arabic, where Sudan remains the world's largest exporter) are the two sectors with the clearest evidence of continuing function.
What government incentives exist for investors in Sudan?
Reduced corporate tax rates for gold mining (18% formal, 20% traditional, down from 28%), general investment law tax exemptions, and legal protection against nationalisation — though implementation is constrained by the security situation.
Is gold mining in Sudan ethically and legally straightforward to engage with?
No — gold revenue is reported to help fund both major parties in the ongoing conflict, creating serious compliance and reputational considerations that require specialist due diligence beyond standard commercial risk assessment.
Is there any real economic growth happening in Sudan right now?
Institutional forecasts (AfDB) show a modest 1.2% rebound in 2025 and projected 2.1–3.2% growth in 2026–2027, though independent conflict-scenario modelling suggests the economy could still be contracting significantly if the war continues, particularly outside gold and select agricultural sectors.
What are the biggest risks for businesses considering Sudan?
Active armed conflict, the world's largest displacement crisis, severe currency volatility (over 300% cumulative depreciation reported), poor infrastructure, and a formal economy described by the World Bank as near-standstill in the most affected areas.
Can foreign investors legally engage in Sudan's mining or agriculture sectors?
Yes, in principle, under Sudan's investment and mining laws, which the government retains custodial authority over; in practice, foreign investment has been significantly constrained by sanctions history and the current security situation.
What long-term potential does Sudan's agricultural sector hold?
Substantial on paper — Sudan has among the largest arable land reserves in Africa (estimates range from 84 to over 200 million hectares) and a historical position as the world's largest sesame and gum arabic exporter, but realising this potential depends entirely on conflict resolution.
Is Sudan's currency stable enough for financial planning?
No — the Sudanese pound has depreciated by well over 300% cumulatively since the conflict began, and any financial modelling should treat continued severe volatility as the base case, not an exception.
What would need to change for Sudan's investment outlook to improve?
A credible, lasting resolution to the conflict is the precondition for any meaningful broad-based investment recovery; the World Bank's own reporting frames reconstruction-related spending as contingent on relative stability being achieved and sustained first.
Are there humanitarian or development-linked opportunities in Sudan?
Yes — international agencies and development institutions maintain active humanitarian and reconstruction-linked engagement, which represents a different category of activity from conventional commercial investment and typically operates through specialised humanitarian and development channels rather than standard private-sector routes.
The Bottom Line
Sudan is in the middle of one of the world's most severe active conflicts, and this briefing will not soften that reality to fit a standard investment-opportunity template. What exists honestly are two narrow categories of continued economic activity — gold mining, which comes with serious conflict-financing compliance considerations, and agricultural export in relatively stable regions, particularly sesame and gum arabic — operating alongside a formal economy that remains severely disrupted across much of the country.
Organisations with existing Sudan or Horn of Africa expertise, specialist security and compliance capability, and genuine patience for conflict-contingent planning are the only realistic category of investor for whom this market makes sense today. For everyone else, Sudan is a market to monitor for credible signs of lasting political resolution, not one to enter.
References
African Development Bank (AfDB) — Sudan Economic Outlook, 2026
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) — Sudan conflict economic impact modelling, 2025
World Bank Group — Sudan Economic Update, May 2025
International Monetary Fund (IMF) — World Economic Outlook, Sudan country data
Sudanese Mineral Resources Company (SMRC) — 2025 gold production and revenue data
Chatham House — 'Gold and the War in Sudan', 2025
